activist_13d on aggressive KILL
Did not survive the pre-registered gate. This is a first-class result, not an error: the honest thing to do with a hypothesis that fails is publish the kill.
The Schedule 13D activist-stake trade (buy the session after an activist's 13D becomes public, hold a fixed ~40-session horizon, long-only, capacity- limited fixed-fraction tranches) wrapped as a synthetic instrument (ACT13D) and added to the plain aggressive universe. Tests whether this filing-driven, small/mid-cap flow effect survives the full deflation / walk-forward / PBO / detection-floor gate at micro-cap-realistic transaction costs, net of the harness's own calibration and no-lookahead verification. Point-in-time by construction via each 13D's EDGAR acceptance timestamp.
The pre-registered gate
| Deflated incremental edge | +0.024 PASS (threshold +0.000) |
| Walk-forward out-of-sample uplift | -0.009 FAIL (threshold +0.000) |
| Probability of backtest overfitting (PBO) | 0.67 FAIL (threshold 0.50) |
No-lookahead probe: PASSED (divergence date 2022-02-07)
The underlying comparison
In-sample figures are the best-of-menu figure on one price history and are upward-biased by selection. Where they disagree with the deflated or walk-forward out-of-sample figures above, those win.
| In-sample Sharpe, candidate vs baseline | +0.952 vs +0.927 (uplift +0.024) |
| Walk-forward out-of-sample Sharpe, candidate vs baseline | +0.407 vs +0.417 |
| PBO combinations evaluated | 924 |
| Correlation to the plain baseline book | +0.998 (n=1509) |
Trust ladder
Current rung: UNVERIFIED. A hypothesis reaches a stakeholder surface as a claim only once it clears VERIFIED; see the verification page for what each rung means.
| validated | FAIL research loop verdict: KILL |
| lookahead_probe | PASS probe passed (divergence 2022-02-07) |
| panel_pinned | PASS panel_manifest_hash=d4e26af794cfe7ce |
| harness_calibrated | FAIL calibration battery did not pass (null false-ship rate 0.0%, MDE None) |
Check the source
Every number above is read straight from these committed files, nothing recomputed for this page:
data/research/activist_13d-aggressive.json # the ORIGINAL pre-registered verdict, machine readable (never rewritten) data/research/activist_13d-aggressive.md # the same original verdict, written out data/research/activist_13d-aggressive.verification.json # trust ladder rung for the original verdict